reflections on 2006, forecast for 2007

So 2006 draws to a close. On a personal note and despite physical evidence to the contrary, i hit 40 this year. With a cultural past very much routed in the previous millenium I can't help feeling slightly outmoded. Phenomena such as Myspace, Second Life, You Tube, and the vast wave of other websites that us over 20s haven't heard of, mean that if you're age 14-16 you spend on average 2 hours less time watching television than us 'experienced' consumers.

What does this mean? Well, age tends to kick the legs away from previously laid cultural foundations. I can't help smiling when I hear Chris Moyles quoting Derek Jamieson with his 'Do they mean us impersonation' and then suddenly remembering that most of his audience won't get the cultural reference.

So as my generation goes slowly past its sell by date, the longed for certainties of life start to fade into a distant memory.

What does this tell us about 2006? Well for me, the next 2-3 years are when the new decade will start defining itself. If the 80s were about powerdressing and greed, the 90s were caring and revolutionary, what will the 00s be about? The dawn of the green age? The audience generated content age? CCTV on demand? Probably the farthest reaching cultural event of our time is 9/11 and the London bombings, I think and hope that we're going to experience a serious backlash against the war in Iraq and the fascistic state in some way shape or form.

In London I'd expect the run up to the Olympics to be the start of a clearly defined generational push back against the voice of authority. If you combine the flashmobbing trend with a political agenda, you might get something interesting....perhaps towards the end of the year.

Of course the transition from Blair to Brown to Cameron will also have a huge impact on the country, so expect this to have a long-lasting impact. (If Blair does in fact go...)

So my reflection and forecast are that our long-lasting cultural foundations will be even more quickly eroded but new foundations will be laid. What's the impact of all of this on the brand licensing front? Well, it's use it or lose it for any brand that has spent millions over the past 5 decades building a brand through mass market advertising. Brand Equity is just one more cultural phenomenon like Humphries, Pick up a Penguin, You only get an OO with Typhoo and all the other dreadful slogans that you'll instantly remember but the new generation never heard, not even once.

Considering that the sort of advertising that we put up with as 9 year olds is no longer legal and that our children now get their media fix from DVD's Mobile, PSPs and other games, and you have a recipe for brand degradation unless you can reach the new audience of consumers. Advertising can't reach them so you better make sure your product does....What would happen if a whole generation stopped eating Heinz tomato ketchup? Surely no amount of advertising could build the current brand loyalty? Distribution is king.... if you're not out there, you're nowhere.... so get your brand going on or see it gone....in 06/07 and beyond

a mobile week

Covered about 1,000 miles driving from London to Leeds, South Yorkshire and Scunthorpe and then back to London on what was probably the foggiest day of the year. Helpfully, every so often there were signs saying Fog, so i didn't think it was part of an ensuing alien invasion.....

Anyway, here's a great link to the latest Tipping Sprung Survey of brand extensions... more amazing things that exist for no obvious reason....http://pdfserver.emediawire.com/pdfdownload/493223/pr.pdf

AAAAAAARGGGGGGGGGH

Only onomatopaeic words can describe the feeling of losing four and a half hours of work because your computer suddenly crashes. Now my work is sullied by the recollection of the pain of losing that initial inspiration.... gutted

Oops there goes another food manufacturer

Don't blink or you might miss Premier Foods acquiring another company. To think that the year started with Quorn, Hovis, and OXO all under separate management is to recognise that Premier are hoovering up underexploited brands. The city certainly approves of the strategy and, as someone who positively encourages brand extension, i'm hardly likely to criticise. The only gripe from my point of view is fewer potential clients.

How long before there's an outsourced brand management department in every VC fund's portfolio?

yet more observations about marketing

I have subscribed to marketing magazine for the past 2 years and also subscribe to the on-line version. Other sources of research include the FT and The Grocer as well as some less well known places.

In today's marketing magazine there are two apparently unrelated pieces on pages 2 and 3. One is about the website 'second life' which is a virtual world with about 1.2M members. Apparently advertisers are buying space and investing in appearing within this virtual community. On the other page there's a picture of the recent Vauxhall Astra campaign of cars in incredibly daring stunts.

What these two pieces have in common is a divergence of opinion about marketing. In the on-line world, advertising is measurable, monitorable and can be easily marked against ROI. If I advertise on second life and 300,000 of its members see my campaign and 30,000 look for more information and 3,000 click onto my landing page and 300 make an enquiry and 30 buy something, well that's good isn't it? My £30,000 bought me 30 customers. Provided i make more than £1,000 per client i should keep spending money.

The Vauxhall Astra campaign is the opposite. How many times have i seen these flying cars? What do i think about the advertisment? Am i more likely to buy an Astra at some point in the near future? Has my opinion changed about Vauxhall and Astra since seeing the ad repetitively? These are the great unknowns of mass marketing.

What's interesting about the increasing trend towards spending marketing budgets online is the failure to appreciate the need to reach beyond the core market. This non-buying, non-receptive mass receives a far more complex message than the 299,970 people who didn't click on the banner advertisement on second life. Maybe they receive messages that reach into the future, that one day, when Vauxhall actually produce a product that goes beyond the astra and truely hits the customer sweet spot, there will be an understanding that this brand cares about them and their needs even if they only just got round to meeting them.

In other, fewer, words - mass marketing is branding, on-line advertising isn't. In this context, branding is selling to people who don't want your product on the basis that at some point in the future, they will want your brand.

When i used to sell advertising and my customers complained it didn't work i'd say, "yes, but think about the branding." I guess this is what i meant...