reflections on 2006, forecast for 2007

So 2006 draws to a close. On a personal note and despite physical evidence to the contrary, i hit 40 this year. With a cultural past very much routed in the previous millenium I can't help feeling slightly outmoded. Phenomena such as Myspace, Second Life, You Tube, and the vast wave of other websites that us over 20s haven't heard of, mean that if you're age 14-16 you spend on average 2 hours less time watching television than us 'experienced' consumers.

What does this mean? Well, age tends to kick the legs away from previously laid cultural foundations. I can't help smiling when I hear Chris Moyles quoting Derek Jamieson with his 'Do they mean us impersonation' and then suddenly remembering that most of his audience won't get the cultural reference.

So as my generation goes slowly past its sell by date, the longed for certainties of life start to fade into a distant memory.

What does this tell us about 2006? Well for me, the next 2-3 years are when the new decade will start defining itself. If the 80s were about powerdressing and greed, the 90s were caring and revolutionary, what will the 00s be about? The dawn of the green age? The audience generated content age? CCTV on demand? Probably the farthest reaching cultural event of our time is 9/11 and the London bombings, I think and hope that we're going to experience a serious backlash against the war in Iraq and the fascistic state in some way shape or form.

In London I'd expect the run up to the Olympics to be the start of a clearly defined generational push back against the voice of authority. If you combine the flashmobbing trend with a political agenda, you might get something interesting....perhaps towards the end of the year.

Of course the transition from Blair to Brown to Cameron will also have a huge impact on the country, so expect this to have a long-lasting impact. (If Blair does in fact go...)

So my reflection and forecast are that our long-lasting cultural foundations will be even more quickly eroded but new foundations will be laid. What's the impact of all of this on the brand licensing front? Well, it's use it or lose it for any brand that has spent millions over the past 5 decades building a brand through mass market advertising. Brand Equity is just one more cultural phenomenon like Humphries, Pick up a Penguin, You only get an OO with Typhoo and all the other dreadful slogans that you'll instantly remember but the new generation never heard, not even once.

Considering that the sort of advertising that we put up with as 9 year olds is no longer legal and that our children now get their media fix from DVD's Mobile, PSPs and other games, and you have a recipe for brand degradation unless you can reach the new audience of consumers. Advertising can't reach them so you better make sure your product does....What would happen if a whole generation stopped eating Heinz tomato ketchup? Surely no amount of advertising could build the current brand loyalty? Distribution is king.... if you're not out there, you're nowhere.... so get your brand going on or see it gone....in 06/07 and beyond